Israel Election: Sami Abu Shehadeh Effectively Banned?

Resolution Criteria

Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sami Abu Shehadeh is effectively banned from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Sami Abu Shehadeh from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election. This includes, but is not limited to: Sami Abu Shehadeh being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration as a candidate, removed from a candidates’ list or from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. The disqualification of the candidates’ list on which Sami Abu Shehadeh stands will qualify only where it also renders Sami Abu Shehadeh ineligible to be elected. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Sami Abu Shehadeh is otherwise reinstated and permitted to stand, this market will resolve to "No". A decision by Sami Abu Shehadeh to voluntarily withdraw from or decline to contest the election will not qualify. Resignation, removal from office, arrest, or detention will not qualify, provided Sami Abu Shehadeh remains eligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Sami Abu Shehadeh, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.