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Second-best AI Lab end of September?

Second-best AI Lab end of September?

Resolves Oct 1, 2026·$445 24h vol·tech
$82.4k total volume·Open for 46 days

Google

34%+17.0%
OutcomeYesNo
Google
Meta
OpenAI
Anthropic
Alibaba
Moonshot
Z.ai
DeepSeek
SpaceXAI
Xiaomi

Order Book

Google

PriceSharesTotal
63.0¢20$13
61.0¢8$5
58.0¢15$9
57.0¢139$79
54.0¢7$4
44.0¢16$7
37.0¢220$81
36.0¢338$122
36.0¢last trade
5.0¢ spread
31.0¢65$20
30.0¢626$188
15.0¢8$1
14.0¢50$7
13.0¢54$7
12.0¢40$5
10.0¢121$12
6.0¢230$14
$254 bids$319 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Google

34%