Trump out as President before 2027?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple but serious question: will Donald Trump stop being president before the end of 2026? A 'Yes' means he leaves office early, through resignation, death, or being formally removed. A 'No' means he serves through at least December 31, 2026, which is the normal path since his second term runs through January 2029. The market currently puts the chance of early departure at just 7%. The market settles 'Yes' the moment Trump permanently leaves office, by resignation, death, or a successful removal process, before midnight on December 31, 2026. Crucially, impeachment alone does not count; he would also have to be convicted and removed by the Senate. A temporary hand-off of power (like going under anesthesia) also does not count. Only a permanent, confirmed departure does. An official announcement triggers resolution immediately, even if the actual departure comes later. The provided news from July 2026 shows Trump actively governing, announcing the Strait of Hormuz is open to shipping and responding to foreign policy events involving Iran. There is no news suggesting any challenge to his hold on office. These headlines paint a picture of a president engaged in day-to-day international affairs, which is relevant context for assessing his current standing. At 7%, the market is heavily one-sided, most participants see early departure as very unlikely, not a coin-flip. The real uncertainty here is simply whether something unexpected and rare happens: a serious health event, an unprecedented political crisis, or a sudden resignation. None of those seem imminent based on available information. The honest challenge in predicting this is that low-probability events, by definition, occasionally occur, and almost no one sees them coming in advance.

The odds right now

• Trump out as President before 2027?7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.