Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Abbas Araghchi
New here?
Understand this market
This market asks who will physically sign a formal written agreement between the US and Iran — not just whether a deal happens, but whose name ends up on it. There are three separate yes/no questions running at once: one for Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, one for Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and one for the UAE's leader Mohamed bin Zayed. Crucially, a person doesn't have to sign on behalf of the US or Iran — they could sign as a witness, a guarantor, or on behalf of a third country that's part of the same agreement.
Order Book
Abbas Araghchi
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Read the full market guide →Related Markets
Abbas Araghchi
54%