Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether a specific named figure, the King of Bahrain, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, or Iran's parliament speaker, will put their signature on a formal written deal that both the U.S. and Iran are parties to, before August 2026. It does not ask whether the U.S. or Iran will sign directly; any of these three individuals could sign as a mediator, a witness, or on behalf of another party to the deal. A Yes means a real, signed document exists with that person's name on it. Each person resolves Yes if they physically or electronically sign an official written agreement, one where both the U.S. and Iran are named parties, by July 31, 2026 at midnight Eastern Time. The signer can represent any party: Iran, the U.S., a third country like Bahrain or Saudi Arabia, or even an international body. If no such signed document exists by that deadline, all three resolve No. Official government sources are checked first; widespread credible reporting can also confirm it. The news right now points strongly away from a deal. As of mid-July 2026, the U.S. has resumed blocking Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump is publicly threatening Iranian infrastructure over stalled nuclear talks. These are signs of escalating pressure and confrontation, not the kind of diplomatic calm that typically precedes a signed agreement. No reports mention any of the three named individuals being involved in active deal-making. The market prices all three individuals at just 2% each, the market is clearly skeptical a deal happens at all, let alone one signed by these specific people. The honest uncertainty here is not 'which way will this go' but rather 'could something unexpected break through.' Diplomacy can shift fast: a backchannel agreement or sudden de-escalation is always theoretically possible. But the current headlines, blockades, threats, standoffs, suggest the gap between the two sides is wide, and the deadline is only two weeks away.

The odds right now

• Abbas Araghchi+0.5 pts (1w)1%
• Recep Tayyip Erdogan+0.3 pts (1w)1%
• Abdel Fattah el-Sisi+0.8 pts (1w)1%
• Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Steve Witkoff-0.2 pts (1w)1%
• Marco Rubio+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Mojtaba Khamenei1%
• Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa-1.1 pts (1w)1%
• Benjamin Netanyahu-0.2 pts (1w)1%
• Mohammed bin Salman-1.5 pts (1w)1%
• Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan-0.5 pts (1w)1%
• Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah-0.4 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 1, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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