Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Prediction markets show the question of whether Hamas will agree to disarm by the end of 2025 is heavily concentrated on a 'No' resolution, with the June 2026 outcome carrying only marginal support. The market requires an official, formal announcement from widely acknowledged Hamas leadership — not informal statements or conditional pledges — before 31 December 2025. Resolution is drawn from official Hamas statements or a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a disarmament policy has been instituted.

Market structure

The market presents five outcomes, with volume heavily concentrated against a 'Yes' resolution by the December 2025 deadline. The June 2026 outcome — the furthest available date — attracts only marginal backing, reflecting the breadth of the field. Resolution requires a formal public commitment to relinquish or dismantle Hamas's military capacity, in whole or in part, in the Gaza Strip. Partial or staged disarmament qualifies provided it forms part of an acknowledged process. Informal statements or conditional pledges do not qualify.

Background

Hamas, the Palestinian militant organisation that has governed the Gaza Strip since 2007, has maintained an armed wing — the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades — as a central component of its political and military identity. Disarmament has historically been a core demand from Israel, the United States, and the Quartet framework as a precondition for full international recognition of a Palestinian governing authority. Hamas has consistently rejected disarmament demands, characterising its armed capacity as a legitimate resistance force. The context for this market is the ongoing conflict in Gaza following the October 2023 escalation, ceasefire negotiations, and international diplomatic efforts to reach a durable political settlement. The question of Hamas disarmament sits at the centre of any long-term governance arrangement for Gaza.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on whether a formal disarmament announcement could emerge before the deadline. Ceasefire negotiations and any broader political settlement talks create the most plausible pathway, as disarmament pledges have historically been linked to negotiated agreements rather than unilateral decisions. The internal cohesion of Hamas leadership — spanning political bureaus abroad and military commanders in Gaza — would affect whether any announcement could be credibly attributed to the organisation's widely acknowledged leadership, as the resolution criteria require. International guarantees, reconstruction funding, and the status of Palestinian statehood discussions could function as incentives or preconditions within any negotiated framework. Israeli military operations and the broader humanitarian situation in Gaza influence the political calculus on all sides. The resolution criteria's distinction between formal policy directives and conditional or informal statements means the precise language and attribution of any announcement would be determinative, even if substantive disarmament discussions were under way.

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