Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

This market asks whether Donald Trump will officially forgive Sam Bankman-Fried's federal criminal conviction before the end of July 2026. Sam Bankman-Fried, often called SBF, founded the crypto exchange FTX, which collapsed in 2022. He was convicted of fraud and sentenced to 25 years in prison. A pardon, commutation, or reprieve would all count: a pardon wipes the conviction, a commutation shortens the sentence, and a reprieve temporarily delays punishment. Any of those three actions by Trump would make this resolve Yes.

This resolves Yes if Trump signs any official act of clemency, a pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for SBF by 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026. The confirmation would come from official U.S. government records or a clear consensus of credible news reporting. It resolves No if nothing happens by that deadline. There is one edge case worth noting: if Trump somehow became legally unable to issue pardons within this timeframe, the market could resolve No immediately rather than waiting for the deadline.

None of the recent news provided relates to SBF, FTX, or any pardon discussion. The headlines cover unrelated topics like Iran, Ukraine, and energy policy. There is simply nothing recent to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is any credible report of Trump's team discussing clemency for SBF, that would be the signal worth watching.