Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Donald Trump will officially forgive Sam Bankman-Fried's federal criminal conviction before the end of July 2026. Sam Bankman-Fried, often called SBF, founded the crypto exchange FTX, which collapsed in 2022. He was convicted of fraud and sentenced to 25 years in prison. A pardon, commutation, or reprieve would all count: a pardon wipes the conviction, a commutation shortens the sentence, and a reprieve temporarily delays punishment. Any of those three actions by Trump would make this resolve Yes. This resolves Yes if Trump signs any official act of clemency, a pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for SBF by 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026. The confirmation would come from official U.S. government records or a clear consensus of credible news reporting. It resolves No if nothing happens by that deadline. There is one edge case worth noting: if Trump somehow became legally unable to issue pardons within this timeframe, the market could resolve No immediately rather than waiting for the deadline. None of the recent news provided relates to SBF, FTX, or any pardon discussion. The headlines cover unrelated topics like Iran, Ukraine, and energy policy. There is simply nothing recent to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is any credible report of Trump's team discussing clemency for SBF, that would be the signal worth watching. The market currently prices this at 0%, meaning participants see virtually no chance of it happening. The main honest uncertainty at that level is not "will it or won't it", it is simply whether something completely unexpected occurs. SBF is a deeply unpopular figure, convicted of defrauding ordinary customers. There is no visible political incentive for Trump to pardon him. At 0%, the market is not really a close call, it reflects a near-universal view that this is extremely unlikely before July 2026.

The odds right now

• Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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