#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: which app will sit at the very top of the US Apple App Store's free app rankings at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 31, 2026? A 'Yes' for ChatGPT means OpenAI's AI chatbot app holds the number one spot at that moment. A 'Yes' for Netflix Game Controller or TikTok Pro means one of those apps beat it. Only one app can win, and the current odds show ChatGPT as the strong front-runner at 64%. At 12:00 PM Eastern Time on July 31, 2026, someone checks the official US iPhone App Store Top Free Apps chart, specifically the list found by tapping 'Apps', scrolling to 'Top Free Apps', and hitting 'See All'. Whatever app sits at position number one at that exact moment settles the market. There is no averaging over time, no human judgment call. It is purely a snapshot of one chart at one moment. If the chart shows ChatGPT, that option resolves as correct and the others resolve as incorrect. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. They cover unrelated topics like a music agency, a court trial, and literary articles. There is no recent news here about App Store rankings, ChatGPT downloads, TikTok, or Netflix to draw on. The kind of news that would matter includes a major app launch going viral, a news event driving downloads of one of these apps, or a significant update from OpenAI, TikTok, or Netflix. App Store rankings can shift fast and unpredictably. A single viral moment, a big news story, or a competitor's major update in the days before July 31 could shuffle the top of the chart quickly. The market prices ChatGPT as the favorite, but a 64% probability means the market also sees a real 36% chance something else takes the top spot. Rankings are a daily snapshot of public behavior, and public behavior is genuinely hard to forecast weeks in advance.

The odds right now

• ChatGPT65%
• TikTok Pro - Events21%
• Netflix Game Controller15%
• Depop - Buy & Sell Clothes1%
• Threads1%
• Google Gemini1%
• Vinted: Pre-loved Marketplace1%
• Claude by Anthropic1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.