Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how valuable Abstract's token will be on its first full day of trading. Abstract is a crypto project that plans to release a governance token, and this market has three price tiers: will that token's total implied value land above $200 million, above $400 million, or above $600 million? The measure used is called FDV, which stands for Fully Diluted Valuation. Think of it like this: take the token price and multiply it by every token that will ever exist, and that gives you the FDV. The higher the tier you pick, the bigger the launch needs to be. The market settles based on Abstract's token FDV at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the day after the token officially launches. For the launch to count, the token must be freely tradable by the public, not just available on a whitelist or in a restricted sale. The price used will be from the most liquid exchange available at that moment. Importantly, if Abstract never launches a token before December 31, 2027, all three tiers resolve No automatically, regardless of anything else. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be any official announcement from Abstract about a token launch date, details about total token supply, or broader crypto market conditions that tend to affect how new tokens are received at launch. New token launches are genuinely hard to call. FDV on day one depends on token price, which can swing wildly in the first hours of trading due to hype, market timing, and how much of the supply is circulating. The market currently puts the $200M threshold at 42%, $400M at 33%, and $600M at 20%, reflecting real spread across outcomes. There is also the basic question of whether the token launches at all before the 2027 deadline. All of that makes this one of the harder crypto questions to evaluate in advance.

The odds right now

• $200M+2.0 pts (1w)42%
• $400M-0.5 pts (1w)33%
• $600M-2.0 pts (1w)20%
• $800M+1.5 pts (1w)16%
• $1B-0.5 pts (1w)13%
• $1.5B-1.0 pts (1w)11%
• $2B8%
• $3B+0.1 pts (1w)5%
• $2.5B+0.1 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2028

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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