Berlin State Election: 3rd Place: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which political party will finish in third place, by number of seats, in Berlin's state parliament election in September 2026. First and second place are not the question here: only the bronze position matters. The three parties in the running, according to current odds, are the AfD (far-right), the Grüne (Greens), and the CDU (center-right). A 'Yes' for one of them means that party ends up with the third-highest seat count in the Berlin parliament after votes are counted. The market settles on whichever named party holds the third-highest seat count in the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus after the September 20, 2026 election. Seats are the primary measure, not raw votes. If two parties tie on seats, the one with more second votes (the main party vote in Germany's system) ranks higher. The official source is the Berlin Election Office. One edge case worth knowing: if the election does not happen at all by December 31, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other', not to any party. None of the provided news headlines relate to the Berlin state election or German politics in any way. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would be worth watching for are new Berlin-specific opinion polls, any major party shakeups, or candidate announcements in the months leading up to September 2026. Three parties are priced within just 8 percentage points of each other, which makes this genuinely close. German state elections can shift significantly in the year before voting, and Berlin's electorate is historically unpredictable. The AfD, Grüne, and CDU are all plausible candidates for any of the top three spots. Polling this far from election day carries wide margins of error, and local issues, national political mood, and voter turnout patterns can all reshuffle the order in ways that are hard to foresee right now.

The odds right now

• AfD+0.5 pts (1w)28%
• Grüne27%
• CDU-4.0 pts (1w)20%
• Linke-2.0 pts (1w)18%
• SPD+0.5 pts (1w)3%
• FDP-0.3 pts (1w)0%
• FW0%
• BSW-1.4 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 20, 2026

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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