Bitcoin above ___ on August 6?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Bitcoin's price will be above a specific dollar threshold at exactly noon Eastern Time on August 6, 2026. There are three separate versions, one for each price level: $54,000, $56,000, and $58,000. A Yes result means Bitcoin is trading above that number at that exact moment. A No means it is at or below it. Think of it like a snapshot: only the price at noon on that one day matters, not the average or the trend. Settlement is determined by one specific data point: the closing price of the 12:00 noon (Eastern Time) one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT trading pair on August 6, 2026. Binance is the only source that counts, so prices from Coinbase, Kraken, or any other exchange are irrelevant. If Bitcoin is even one cent above the threshold at that moment, it resolves Yes. At or below it resolves No. There is no flexibility or averaging involved. No recent news relevant to Bitcoin's price outlook was provided. The one headline available is about a political protest in Pakistan and has no connection to this market. For a question like this, the kinds of developments worth watching would be major regulatory decisions, macroeconomic shifts like interest rate changes, or significant events in the broader crypto market. Bitcoin is a genuinely volatile asset, and over a year is a very long time. The market currently prices all three thresholds as highly likely to be exceeded, at 97 to 99 percent odds, which means the market strongly expects Bitcoin to be well above these levels by August 2026. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected, like a major crash or crisis, pushes Bitcoin back down to these relatively low levels. That is considered unlikely by current pricing, but not impossible.

The odds right now

• 54,00099%
• 56,00099%
• 58,00096%
• 60,00088%
• 62,00065%
• 64,00030%
• 66,0008%
• 68,0002%
• 70,0001%
• 72,0001%
• 74,0000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 6, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.