Bitcoin above ___ on August 7?: how this market works

What you need to know

These are three separate markets, each asking whether Bitcoin will be above a specific price at one precise moment: noon Eastern Time on August 7, 2026. A Yes means Bitcoin's price on Binance clears that threshold at that exact minute. A No means it doesn't, even if it was above that level earlier in the day or just minutes later. The three price levels are $56,000, $58,000, and $60,000, and the market currently treats all three as fairly likely to be cleared. Settlement depends on one single data point: the closing price of the 1-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT chart at exactly 12:00 noon ET on August 7, 2026. That one minute's close is all that counts. It doesn't matter what Bitcoin does the rest of the day, or what other exchanges show. If that specific Binance close price is higher than the threshold, it resolves Yes. If it's at or below the threshold, even by a tiny fraction, it resolves No. No recent news relevant to Bitcoin's price trajectory was provided. The one headline given concerns a political protest in Pakistan and has no clear connection to crypto markets. The kinds of developments worth watching for Bitcoin price markets include major regulatory announcements, large institutional moves, macroeconomic policy shifts, or significant events specific to Binance as an exchange. The market prices these thresholds at 88% to 98% likely, so the main honest uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected drives Bitcoin significantly lower over the next year. That is a real possibility: crypto prices can drop sharply from regulatory news, macroeconomic shocks, or sudden shifts in market sentiment. A whole year is also a long time, which compounds that uncertainty. The precise single-minute measurement adds a small extra wrinkle too, since a price spike or dip at exactly noon could flip the result.

The odds right now

• 52,00099%
• 54,00099%
• 56,00098%
• 58,00095%
• 60,00087%
• 62,00065%
• 64,00032%
• 66,00010%
• 68,0003%
• 70,0002%
• 72,0001%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 7, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.