Bitcoin above ___ on August 8?: how this market works

What you need to know

These are three separate markets, each asking whether Bitcoin's price will be above a specific dollar threshold at a single moment in time: noon Eastern Time on August 8, 2026. A Yes means Bitcoin costs more than that threshold at that exact minute. A No means it costs that amount or less. The thresholds are $54,000, $56,000, and $58,000, and Bitcoin would need to clear each one to resolve that particular market as Yes. Each market settles based on one specific data point: the closing price of the 12:00 noon (Eastern Time) one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT trading pair on August 8, 2026. Binance is the only source that counts, so prices on Coinbase, Kraken, or anywhere else do not matter here. If Bitcoin closes that single one-minute window above the threshold, the answer is Yes. At or below means No. The outcome depends on one minute out of the entire day. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be major regulatory decisions, significant shifts in institutional Bitcoin adoption, macroeconomic changes like interest rate moves, or large-scale market events that could push prices dramatically up or down over the next year. Bitcoin is roughly 14 months away from the resolution date, and that is the core challenge. The market currently prices the $54,000 threshold at 99%, reflecting that Bitcoin already trades well above that level today. The main uncertainty at those high odds is not a balanced debate but rather tail risk: an unexpected crash, a major exchange failure, or a broad financial crisis could still move prices dramatically. The further out a deadline is, the more room there is for the unexpected.

The odds right now

• 54,00099%
• 56,00098%
• 58,00096%
• 60,00089%
• 62,00068%
• 64,00037%
• 66,00011%
• 68,0003%
• 70,0002%
• 72,0001%
• 74,0001%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 8, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.