Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by July 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how many people in the U.S. will be officially confirmed as sick from cyclosporiasis, a parasitic stomach illness, between May 1 and July 31, 2026. The two thresholds are 5,000 or more cases (currently priced at 82% likely) and 10,000 or more cases (priced at only 5% likely). A 'Yes' simply means the CDC's official count hits the number in question before the deadline. Cases caught abroad and brought home do not count, only ones caught inside the U.S. The market settles based on one specific number: the CDC's official domestically acquired case count on its Cyclosporiasis Surveillance page, checked at 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026. If that number is at or above the threshold shown in each market, it resolves Yes. If it falls short, it resolves No. One key edge case: state health agency reports do not count. Only what the CDC itself lists as confirmed domestic cases matters, so there can be a gap between what states report and what officially resolves the market. A news headline from July 22, 2026 reports that RFK Jr. described an ongoing cyclosporiasis outbreak as 'under control,' with at least 1,600 confirmed cases across five states at that point. That figure is still well below the 5,000-case threshold, but the outbreak is active and cases are still being reported and confirmed over time, which is why the market remains open. The second headline is unrelated to this market. The main uncertainty here is the pace of reporting rather than whether an outbreak is happening, since one clearly is. Cases get confirmed and added to the CDC count over days and weeks, so the final July 31 number could be meaningfully higher than what is visible today. The 5,000-case threshold is priced at 82%, meaning the market treats it as probable but not certain. The 10,000-case threshold is priced at only 5%, reflecting that a jump of that scale would require a much larger and faster spread than currently observed.

The odds right now

• 5000+86%
• 10000+5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis in humans in the territory of the United States of America since May 1, 2026, according to the CDC surveillance count by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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