Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how many times will Donald Trump post on Truth Social during a specific one-week window, from August 4 to August 11, 2026? The three leading options shown are ranges: 100-119 posts, 120-139 posts, and 140-159 posts, each priced around the same odds. A 'Yes' on any one range means his total post count lands inside that bracket. It is essentially a counting question about his social media activity during that week. The market settles by counting Trump's main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts on Truth Social between August 4 at 12:00 PM ET and August 11 at 12:00 PM ET. Replies do not count unless they appear on the main feed. Deleted posts still count if the tracker captured them within about five minutes. The official counting tool is a third-party tracker at xtracker.polymarket.com. If that tracker fails, the market can fall back to checking Truth Social directly. Two pieces of news stand out. First, Truth Social just launched a paid service called 'Market-moving Truths' on August 2, which could encourage Trump to post more actively to justify or promote that product. Second, Trump is navigating a developing situation around Iran, including a potential deal to pause strikes. Major geopolitical events like that have historically driven him to post heavily and often. Trump's posting volume can swing a lot depending on the news cycle. A busy week in geopolitics, domestic politics, or personal controversies could push his count well above the top ranges. A quieter week, travel, or time away from his phone could push it lower. The market treats all three leading ranges as roughly equal, which honestly reflects how unpredictable his week-to-week volume is. No historical pattern fully pins it down, and outside events between now and August 4 could shift everything.

The odds right now

• 120-13921%
• 200+19%
• 100-11917%
• 140-15917%
• 160-17914%
• 180-1999%
• 40-597%
• 80-996%
• 60-795%
• 20-392%
• <200%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 11, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between August 4, 12:00 PM ET and August 11, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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