Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Donald Trump post on Truth Social during one specific week in August 2026? A 'Yes' on any bracket means the total lands in that range. For example, the '120-139' bracket wins if Trump posts somewhere between 120 and 139 times across that seven-day window. To put that in perspective, 120-139 posts in a week means roughly 17 to 20 posts per day, which is a high but historically not unusual pace for Trump on Truth Social. The market settles based on a post-counting tracker at xtracker.polymarket.com, which monitors Trump's Truth Social account from exactly 12:00 PM Eastern Time on August 7, 2026 to 12:00 PM Eastern Time on August 14, 2026. Only main feed posts, reposts, and quote posts count. Regular replies do not count, unless they happen to appear on the main feed. Deleted posts still count if the tracker captured them within about five minutes of posting. If the tracker fails, Truth Social itself becomes the backup source. The provided headlines are all from early August 2026 and focus on US-China tensions, a potential US-Iran deal, and diplomatic signals around Xi Jinping's planned September visit. These are all active, high-profile topics. That matters here because when major geopolitical news is moving fast, Trump tends to post more frequently. So a busy news environment in that week could push his post count toward the higher brackets. Trump's posting volume can swing a lot from week to week depending on news cycles, travel, and personal focus, which makes any specific range genuinely hard to pin down. The three leading brackets (120-139, 160-179, and 140-159) are all priced close together at 17-19%, which tells you the market sees real spread across a wide range of outcomes. Whether a major event, a quiet weekend, or a foreign trip happens to fall inside that exact seven-day window could shift the total significantly in either direction.

The odds right now

• 120-13919%
• 80-9916%
• 140-15916%
• 160-17916%
• 100-11915%
• 200+14%
• 180-1998%
• 60-797%
• 40-592%
• 20-391%
• <201%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 14, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between August 7, 12:00 PM ET and August 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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