Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 31 - August 7, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Donald Trump post on Truth Social during a specific one-week window? The different outcome brackets, like 140-159 or 160-179, represent ranges of total posts. A 'Yes' for a given bracket means his post count lands inside that range. It is not about what he says, just how many times he hits publish on his main feed during those seven days. The market settles based on a post-counting tool at xtracker.polymarket.com, which tracks Trump's Truth Social account from July 31 at noon ET through August 7 at noon ET. Only main feed posts, reposts, and quote posts count. Regular replies do not count, unless they happen to appear in the main feed. Deleted posts still count if the tracker captured them within roughly five minutes. The tracker is the primary source, but Truth Social itself can be used as a backup if the tracker malfunctions. The provided news from early August 2026 points to active geopolitical situations: Trump threatening strikes on Iran, tensions involving Gaza and Kuwait, and related diplomatic statements. These kinds of high-stakes international moments have historically prompted more frequent posting from Trump. Whether that pattern holds during this specific window is the open question. No news directly reports on his actual posting volume during this period. Predicting a specific post count is genuinely difficult because it depends entirely on one person's daily habits and mood. A busy news week, like the Iran tensions in the headlines right now, could push his count higher. A golf trip or a quieter political moment could push it lower. The market is spread across many brackets, with the leading range of 140-159 holding only 27%, which signals real disagreement. Small changes in his routine during just seven days can shift the outcome significantly.

The odds right now

• 140-15927%
• 160-17920%
• 120-13913%
• 180-19912%
• 200+12%
• 100-1195%
• 80-992%
• 60-791%
• 40-590%
• 20-390%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 7, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between July 31, 12:00 PM ET and August 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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