Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 24 - July 31, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how many times will Donald Trump post on Truth Social during a specific one-week window, from July 24 to July 31, 2026? You are not picking Yes or No, but choosing a range. A win means the final post count lands inside the range you chose. The ranges shown cover everything from a quieter week of around 100 posts up to a very active week of 200 or more. The market settles based on a post-counting tracker at xtracker.polymarket.com, which automatically tallies Trump's Truth Social activity during the window. Only original posts, quote posts, and reposts count. Replies are excluded unless they appear on his main feed. Deleted posts still count if the tracker captured them within about 5 minutes. The count at the close of July 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET determines which range wins. A major tariff announcement lands right at the start of the window, July 24, with Trump imposing double-digit tariffs on dozens of countries. High-profile policy moves like this have historically driven heavy posting activity, as Trump often uses Truth Social to explain, defend, or amplify his decisions. A legal story about withdrawn subpoenas involving the New York Times also broke the same day, giving him another topic he might comment on. Trump's posting volume can swing dramatically from week to week depending on news cycles, travel, personal focus, and political events, and none of those are perfectly predictable. The spread of odds across the ranges, with no single outcome above 21%, shows the market itself sees genuine uncertainty. Major news breaking during the window could push volume sharply up, while a quieter or travel-heavy week could suppress it. Historical patterns help, but any single week can be an outlier.

The odds right now

• 100-11921%
• 120-13919%
• 200+16%
• 140-15912%
• 80-9911%
• 160-1799%
• 180-1998%
• 60-793%
• 40-593%
• <201%
• 20-391%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between July 24, 12:00 PM ET and July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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