Ethereum above ___ on July 30?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking where the price of Ethereum (ETH) will be on one specific moment: noon Eastern Time on July 30, 2026. There are three separate price thresholds: $1,700, $1,800, and $1,900. For each one, a Yes means ETH is trading above that level at that exact moment, and a No means it is at or below it. Think of them as three hurdles of increasing height, and the question is how many ETH can clear. Settlement is simple and mechanical: at noon ET on July 30, 2026, one specific number is checked, which is the closing price of the one-minute candle for ETH/USDT on Binance at that exact minute. If the price is strictly above the threshold, it resolves Yes. At or below resolves No. Only Binance counts here, not Coinbase, Kraken, or any other exchange. If Binance shows a different price than other platforms at that moment, Binance is still the only number that matters. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would include major changes in broader crypto market conditions, regulatory decisions affecting Ethereum, significant upgrades to the Ethereum network, or large macroeconomic shifts that tend to move crypto prices up or down. Crypto prices over a year-long horizon are genuinely difficult to forecast. The market currently prices the $1,700 threshold at 97%, meaning participants see that level as nearly certain, while $1,900 sits around 41%, essentially a coin toss. The main sources of uncertainty are how wide and unpredictable crypto swings can be, macroeconomic conditions, regulatory news, and the fact that the outcome depends on a single one-minute snapshot rather than an average, so a brief spike or dip right at noon could determine everything.

The odds right now

• 1,400100%
• 1,50099%
• 1,60099%
• 1,70099%
• 1,80086%
• 1,90044%
• 2,0009%
• 2,1002%
• 2,2001%
• 2,3001%
• 2,4000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.