Bitcoin above ___ on August 1?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Bitcoin's price will be above a specific dollar amount at exactly noon Eastern Time on August 1, 2026. There are three separate versions of this question, one for each price level: $54,000, $56,000, and $58,000. A 'Yes' means Bitcoin is trading above that number at that moment. A 'No' means it is at or below it. The higher the target price, the harder the bar is to clear. Settlement is decided by one single data point: the closing price of Bitcoin against the US dollar on Binance, recorded during the one-minute window that starts at noon Eastern Time on August 1, 2026. If that one closing number is strictly higher than the target price, the market settles as Yes. If it is equal to or lower, it settles as No. Only Binance's BTC/USDT pair counts here, not Coinbase, Kraken, or any other exchange or currency pair. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching over the coming year would include major regulatory decisions about Bitcoin in the US or other large economies, significant moves by institutional investors, macroeconomic shifts like interest rate changes, and any large-scale security or exchange incidents that could affect crypto markets broadly. Bitcoin has historically moved dramatically over any twelve-month period, so the distance to August 2026 is the biggest source of uncertainty here. Bitcoin has traded both far above and far below all three target levels in recent years. The market currently prices all three thresholds as very likely to be cleared, above 97% for each, which means the main remaining question is simply whether something unexpected and severe happens. That said, crypto markets can move sharply on short notice.

The odds right now

• 54,00099%
• 56,00098%
• 58,00097%
• 60,00093%
• 62,00082%
• 64,00060%
• 66,00032%
• 68,00012%
• 70,0004%
• 72,0002%
• 74,0001%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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