Bitcoin above ___ on July 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

These are three separate markets, each asking whether Bitcoin's price will be above a specific dollar level ($54,000, $56,000, or $58,000) on a single moment in time: noon Eastern Time on July 31, 2026. A 'Yes' means Bitcoin is trading above that threshold at that exact moment. A 'No' means it is at or below it. Think of it like a snapshot, not an average: only one second of one day decides the outcome. Each market settles based on one very specific data point: the closing price of a one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT chart, at exactly 12:00 noon Eastern Time on July 31, 2026. Binance is the only source that counts, so prices on Coinbase, Kraken, or anywhere else are irrelevant. If Bitcoin is above the stated price at that moment, it resolves Yes. At or below, it resolves No. There is no averaging, no grace period, just that one reading. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching for would include major regulatory decisions about Bitcoin, large institutional buying or selling announcements, shifts in U.S. monetary policy, or any significant macroeconomic events, since all of these have historically moved Bitcoin's price by large amounts over multi-month periods. Bitcoin is priced above $54,000 today, and the market puts the odds of staying there through July 2026 at around 99%, which reflects how far these thresholds currently are from the present price. The main honest uncertainty is not whether two equal sides exist, it is simply whether something unexpected and severe could push Bitcoin below these levels. Crypto has historically had sharp crashes. Over 14 months, a major market shock, regulatory crackdown, or financial crisis could matter.

The odds right now

• 54,00098%
• 56,00098%
• 58,00097%
• 60,00093%
• 62,00079%
• 64,00052%
• 66,00023%
• 68,0009%
• 70,0004%
• 72,0002%
• 74,0001%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.