Haiti elections delayed again?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Haiti's planned 2026 elections will be delayed yet again. A Yes means voting does not happen by August 30, 2026, whether because it gets officially postponed or simply never takes place on that date. A No means the first round of voting, for president or the national legislature, actually happens on or before August 30, 2026. Haiti has a long history of elections being pushed back, so the question is really: does this time actually happen as scheduled? This market settles Yes if the August 30, 2026 first round of voting does not take place by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on that date, for any reason, including a formal postponement or a quiet failure to organize the vote. It settles No only if voting genuinely happens on time. The call will come from official Haitian government announcements, or from a clear consensus among reliable news outlets if official communication is unclear. There is no gray area: either votes are cast by that deadline, or Yes wins. No relevant news was provided for this market. The one headline listed appears to be a literary piece unrelated to Haitian elections. The kinds of developments worth watching would be: announcements from Haiti's transitional government or electoral council about preparations, reports on security conditions in the country, and any international observer involvement or funding commitments for the vote. The market is priced at 98%, meaning participants see a Yes outcome as nearly certain, not a close call. The honest uncertainty here is not really about two equal sides. It is simply whether something unexpected breaks the pattern and elections actually happen on time. Haiti has faced severe political instability, gang violence, and a lack of functioning electoral institutions for years. The slim 2% chance of a No reflects the real but very small possibility that conditions improve dramatically and fast enough to hold a credible vote by the deadline.

The odds right now

• Haiti elections delayed again?+11.9 pts (1w)98%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 30, 2026

After earlier delays, the first round of the 2026 Haitian legislative and presidential elections is currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026, with a potential second round set for December 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first round of voting for the presidency or the national legislative bodies, including the Senate (Sénat) and the Chamber of Deputies (Chambre des Députés), is rescheduled to take place after August 30, 2026, or otherwise does not take place by August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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