Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how many seats Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party will win in Israel's next parliamentary election. The Israeli parliament, called the Knesset, has 120 seats total. A result of 20-24 seats would mean Likud performs modestly, 25-29 would be a stronger result, and under 20 would mean a notably weak showing. More seats generally means more power to lead a governing coalition, so this is essentially a question about how strong Likud's position will be after the vote. The market settles based on the official seat count Likud receives in the October 27, 2026 election. The source of truth is Israel's Central Election Committee, though credible news consensus works too. One important detail: if Likud runs on a joint list with another party, all seats that combined list wins count toward Likud's total. If results are somehow not confirmed by October 31, 2027, the market automatically resolves to the lowest bracket, which is under 20 seats. None of the news headlines provided are related to Israeli politics, Likud, or the upcoming election. There is nothing relevant here to summarize. The kind of developments worth watching for would be Israeli polling data, shifts in Netanyahu's legal situation, coalition negotiations, or early-election scenarios that could change the timeline. The market is split fairly evenly across three ranges, which reflects genuine uncertainty this far out. Israeli politics is volatile: polling shifts quickly, coalition dynamics change, and the ongoing conflict adds unpredictability. Netanyahu's legal trials could affect his party's standing. The election is still over a year away, meaning the political landscape could look very different by then. The joint-list rule also adds complexity, since a merger with another party could inflate or complicate Likud's seat count in ways hard to anticipate now.

The odds right now

• 20-24+3.5 pts (1w)32%
• 25-29-4.0 pts (1w)26%
• <20+2.5 pts (1w)22%
• 30-34-2.0 pts (1w)18%
• 35++0.9 pts (1w)6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 27, 2026

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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