Highest temperature in Austin on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: exactly how hot will Austin, Texas get on July 22, 2026? Not just whether it will be hot, but which two-degree range the peak temperature will fall into. The leading options are 104-105°F (roughly 40°C), 102-103°F (about 39°C), and 106-107°F (about 41°C). Think of it as picking the right slot on a thermometer for the hottest moment of that single day in Austin. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on July 22, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground's daily history page for that station. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Fahrenheit. Whichever two-degree bracket contains that number wins. One thing worth noting: the result is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears, so any late corrections to the July 22 data after that point are ignored. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. What would actually matter here are things like extended forecasts for Austin in late July 2026, any heat dome or atmospheric pattern developing over Texas, or seasonal outlooks from NOAA. Those are the signals worth watching as the date approaches. July in Austin is reliably brutal, so everyone agrees it will be hot. The hard part is picking the right two-degree window. The market spreads its weight across a 6-degree range, which reflects how difficult precise temperature forecasting is even a day or two out, let alone further in advance. Wind patterns, cloud cover, humidity, and whether a weather system moves through can all shift the peak by a few degrees. A narrow two-degree bracket leaves very little margin for error.

The odds right now

• 104-105°F43%
• 102-103°F32%
• 106-107°F13%
• 100-101°F12%
• 98-99°F3%
• 108-109°F3%
• 110-111°F1%
• 96-97°F0%
• 93°F or below0%
• 94-95°F0%
• 112°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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