Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: on July 22, 2026, what will the single highest temperature of the day be at Buenos Aires's main international airport? July is winter in Buenos Aires, so the question is really about a typical cold winter day, with the three main possibilities being 12°C, 13°C, or 14°C (roughly 54°F to 57°F). The market currently leans toward 13°C at 40%, with 14°C at 31% and 12°C at 22%, meaning the remaining small probability covers other temperatures outside those three. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Minister Pistarini International Airport (the Ezeiza station) on July 22, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius and pulled from Weather Underground. Whichever temperature bucket (12°C, 13°C, or 14°C) contains that peak reading wins. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 23 appears on Weather Underground before it finalizes, and any corrections to the July 22 reading published before that cutoff are accepted. After that, the number is locked in. No recent news relevant to this market was provided, which is completely normal this far out from the date. The kind of development that would matter is a long-range seasonal forecast for Buenos Aires's winter of 2026, or historical weather data showing how often July 22 specifically reaches each of these temperatures at Ezeiza. Weather this specific, more than a year in advance, is genuinely hard to pin down. Even the best forecasters cannot reliably predict the high temperature on a single day that far out. The three options cover a narrow three-degree band, meaning a slightly warmer or cooler air mass moving through on that exact day shifts everything. Historical averages can guide the probabilities, but any given July day in Buenos Aires can vary meaningfully from the average depending on wind direction, cloud cover, and passing weather systems.

The odds right now

• 13°C41%
• 14°C26%
• 12°C24%
• 15°C8%
• 11°C5%
• 16°C1%
• 10°C1%
• 17°C0%
• 9°C or below0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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