Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Chongqing get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of that day, measured at Chongqing's Jiangbei International Airport weather station. The three options are 39°C, 40°C, or 41°C, and you are picking which one matches the actual peak. To picture it: 40°C is about 104°F, a seriously intense summer heat. The market is essentially a forecast for one number on one day. The market settles on whichever temperature bucket contains the day's peak reading from the Jiangbei Airport station, as logged on Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, so 39.7°C would count as 39°C, not 40°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count. Any corrections made after do not. There is no ambiguity about who decides: it is purely whatever that weather station reports. There is no recent news available that is directly relevant to this market. For a weather question like this, what would matter most is seasonal forecast data for Chongqing in late July 2026, or historical records showing how often temperatures hit each of these levels during that time of year. Neither is provided here. Weather forecasting more than a few days out carries genuine uncertainty, and this market closes over a year from now. Chongqing is one of China's hottest cities in summer, nicknamed a 'furnace city', so hitting 39 to 41°C in late July is entirely within the normal range, which is exactly what makes this hard: all three options are plausible. The spread between them is just one degree, and a single degree can hinge on cloud cover, wind, or humidity on that specific afternoon.

The odds right now

• 40°C44%
• 39°C33%
• 41°C14%
• 38°C8%
• 37°C2%
• 42°C2%
• 36°C1%
• 35°C or below1%
• 43°C1%
• 44°C0%
• 45°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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