Highest temperature in Dallas on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Dallas get on July 23, 2026, and which temperature range will that peak fall into? A Yes on any given range means the hottest reading of the whole day lands inside that band. For example, if the day peaks at 99°F, the 98-99°F range wins. The other ranges resolve as No. It is essentially a bracket system for the day's high temperature, measured in whole degrees Fahrenheit at one specific weather station in Dallas. The answer comes from one source only: the Weather Underground page for Dallas Love Field Station (KDAL), which logs hourly temperature readings. Whatever the highest single reading is on July 23, 2026, that determines which bracket wins. The market waits until at least the first data point of July 24 appears before it locks in, so late-day temperature corrections can still count. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees, so a reading of 99.7°F would count as 99°F, placing it in the 98-99°F bracket. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the kind of news that would actually matter here does not exist yet. What to watch for closer to the date: seasonal weather outlooks for Texas, any heat dome forecasts for late July 2026, and historical temperature records for Dallas in late July, which tend to cluster in the high 90s to low 100s. Dallas in late July is reliably hot, but the exact peak on a single day is genuinely hard to call more than a year in advance. The market spreads its weight fairly evenly across three ranges spanning 96°F to 101°F, reflecting real uncertainty across a six-degree window. Day-to-day weather is sensitive to cloud cover, wind shifts, and moisture levels that no forecast can pin down this far out. The honest answer is that predicting a two-degree band more than 12 months ahead is closer to informed guessing than to confident forecasting.

The odds right now

• 98-99°F39%
• 100-101°F31%
• 96-97°F21%
• 102-103°F9%
• 94-95°F2%
• 104-105°F2%
• 91°F or below1%
• 92-93°F0%
• 106-107°F0%
• 108-109°F0%
• 110°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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