Highest temperature in Milan on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 22, 2026, how hot will it get in Milan? Specifically, it asks whether the peak temperature that day hits 30°C (about 86°F), 29°C (about 84°F), or 28°C (about 82°F). Think of it as guessing the afternoon high on a summer day in northern Italy, rounded to the nearest whole degree. After July 22 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for the Malpensa Airport weather station near Milan and reads the single highest temperature recorded that day in whole degrees Celsius. Whatever that number is, the matching option wins. The check happens once the first reading for July 23 appears on that site, and only data available at that moment counts. None of the provided news is relevant to this market. The only headline is about a business school in India, which has no connection to Milan weather. To watch for anything useful, you would want actual weather forecasts for northern Italy in the days leading up to July 22, 2026. A year out, weather is genuinely unpredictable at this level of precision. The three options cover just a 3-degree range, and the difference between winning and losing is a single degree Celsius. Milan in late July can be hot, but temperatures vary based on wind patterns, cloud cover, and humidity that nobody can reliably forecast this far ahead. The market splits fairly evenly between 29°C and 30°C, reflecting that honest uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 30°C43%
• 29°C38%
• 31°C11%
• 28°C10%
• 32°C1%
• 27°C1%
• 26°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C0%
• 25°C or below0%
• 35°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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