Highest temperature in Moscow on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Moscow get on July 22, 2026, and specifically will the peak temperature that day be 23°C, 24°C, or 25°C? Think of it as predicting the afternoon high on a single summer day. A reading of 23°C is a mild, pleasant summer day (about 73°F). A reading of 24°C is slightly warmer (about 75°F). A reading of 25°C is comfortably warm (about 77°F). The question is which of those three buckets the actual peak lands in. The market settles based on one specific data source: the temperature log that NOAA publishes for Vnukovo International Airport, a major airport on the southwest edge of Moscow. Whoever runs this market will look at every hourly reading on July 22, 2026, find the single highest number recorded that day in whole degrees Celsius, and match it to one of the three options. The market cannot close until at least one reading from July 23 appears in that log, locking in the final data. Late corrections to the July 22 readings are only accepted before that first July 23 datapoint appears. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. That is completely normal for a weather market set more than a year in advance. The kind of development that would matter is a seasonal forecast from a major meteorological agency pointing to an unusually warm or cool summer in western Russia, but those forecasts only become meaningfully precise a few weeks before the date. One year out, this is genuinely hard to predict with precision, even for professional forecasters. Weather forecasting loses most of its accuracy beyond about two weeks, so right now the market is essentially working from historical averages for late July in Moscow rather than any real forecast. The spread between 23°C and 24°C is just a single degree, which is well within normal day-to-day variation. The market prices these two options nearly equally, which honestly reflects how close a call it is at this distance.

The odds right now

• 23°C45%
• 24°C44%
• 25°C8%
• 22°C6%
• 26°C1%
• 21°C1%
• 27°C1%
• 20°C or below0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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