Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Warsaw on July 22, 2026? You are choosing between three possible outcomes: the peak temperature lands at 21°C, 22°C, or 23°C. Think of it like guessing the afternoon high you would see on a weather app for Warsaw that day. A 23°C day feels like a mild, pleasant summer afternoon. A 21°C day feels noticeably cooler, more like a breezy spring day. After July 22, 2026 ends, the market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded that day at Warsaw Chopin Airport, pulled from Weather Underground's historical data for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so 22.7°C would count as 22°C. The market waits until the first data point from July 23 appears before finalizing, and any corrections made after that cutoff are ignored. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The one headline listed appears unrelated to Warsaw weather. What would actually matter here: seasonal forecasts for Central Europe in late July, or any medium-range weather model data pointing to a heat wave or a cool front moving through Poland around that date. July 22 is still about a year away, which makes this genuinely hard to call. Reliable weather forecasts only reach about 10 days into the future, so right now there is no real meteorological data to anchor predictions. The market is essentially reflecting historical averages for late July in Warsaw, where typical highs cluster around 22 to 24°C. The spread across three very close options, just 2°C apart, means even a small shift in conditions, like cloud cover or wind direction, could swing the outcome.

The odds right now

• 23°C45%
• 22°C42%
• 21°C9%
• 24°C6%
• 20°C1%
• 25°C1%
• 19°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 27°C or higher0%
• 17°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.