How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how widely Waymo's driverless taxi service will have spread across the United States by the end of 2026. Waymo currently operates robotaxi services in a handful of cities where anyone can open an app and hail a self-driving car with no human at the wheel. A 'Yes' on the 16-19 bracket, for example, means that by December 31, 2026, Waymo will have reached between 16 and 19 distinct cities or regions where the public can actually book a ride. The market settles based on how many cities or regions have fully public Waymo service on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern time. The key word is 'public': a city only counts if any ordinary person can open the Waymo One app or Uber and book a driverless ride right then. Invite-only programs, employee tests, or limited pilots do not count. One important rule: if Waymo treats a whole metro area, like the San Francisco Bay Area, as a single zone, that entire zone counts as just one city. The one news item provided is about digital driving licences in Malaysia, which has no connection to Waymo's expansion plans. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of news that would matter for this market is Waymo announcing new city launches, signing new Uber partnership agreements, or conversely, pulling back from markets or facing regulatory delays. Waymo's expansion pace is genuinely hard to forecast because it depends on several things no one fully controls: regulatory approvals in each new city, fleet size, local partnerships, and competitive pressure. The market currently gives the most weight to the 16-19 range at 29%, but meaningful probability is spread across other brackets too, which tells you participants are genuinely unsure. City count also depends on how Waymo defines its own service areas, and that classification rule could shift how the final number lands.

The odds right now

• 16-19+0.5 pts (1w)29%
• 12-15+8.4 pts (1w)17%
• 20-23-4.5 pts (1w)10%
• 28-31+0.2 pts (1w)7%
• 24-27-5.5 pts (1w)7%
• <12-9.3 pts (1w)7%
• 32+-3.0 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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