Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on exactly which date will Google release its next 'Pro' tier Gemini AI model to the public? The options are specific calendar dates, and participants are picking which day they think the launch will happen. A 'Yes' on a given date means the model dropped on that day. It is not asking whether the model will come out at all, only when. The 'Pro' label matters: a faster, cheaper Flash model would not count, only something Google officially calls Pro. The market settles on whichever date Google makes a new Pro-labeled Gemini model genuinely available to anyone, publicly, with no invite or waitlist barrier. Google's own official announcements and website are the primary source, backed by credible press coverage. A few important edge cases: a closed or private beta does not count, a General Availability upgrade of an existing Preview model can count, and a name appearing on Google's site without actual access behind it also does not count. The deadline is August 31, 2026. None of the recent headlines provided relate to Google, Gemini, or AI model releases in any way. There is no relevant news to point to here. The kind of update that would matter is an official Google announcement, a Google I/O event, or credible reporting that a new Gemini Pro model is entering public access. The core difficulty is that Google has not announced a specific release date, so all the odds here reflect guesswork about Google's internal schedule. Tech launches often slip, accelerate, or arrive without much warning. The three leading dates are clustered within August 2026, which suggests the market expects a launch is coming soon, but picking the exact day is genuinely hard. There is also some ambiguity in what qualifies as 'Pro,' though the criteria spell that out fairly carefully.

The odds right now

• August 1046%
• August 1131%
• August 2223%
• August 719%
• August 2419%
• August 2819%
• August 1217%
• August 2317%
• August 617%
• August 2617%
• August 416%
• August 2516%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.