Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how well Google's next 'Pro' Gemini model will score on a well-known AI benchmarking leaderboard called Chatbot Arena. The Arena leaderboard ranks AI models by having real users compare them head-to-head, then gives each model a numeric score. The three sub-markets here ask whether that score will clear specific thresholds: 1480, 1490, or 1495. Think of it like asking whether a new athlete's debut performance will hit a certain rating, and you are betting on how high the bar they clear. When the next Gemini 'Pro' model appears on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, the market checks its official score the following day at noon Eastern time. If the score is at or above the threshold (1480, 1490, or 1495 depending on which sub-market), that one resolves Yes. If not, it resolves No. One important edge case: only models labeled 'Pro' count. Flash or Flash-Lite versions do not qualify. If no qualifying Pro model appears by December 31, 2026, all sub-markets resolve No. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market at all. They cover unrelated topics. The key things to watch for would be any Google announcement of a new Gemini Pro model release, or any update to the Chatbot Arena leaderboard showing a new Gemini Pro entry. The market is already fairly decisive on the lowest bar: 87% for a score of 1480 or more, suggesting participants see a strong debut as the most likely outcome. The real question becomes the higher thresholds, with 1495 sitting near a coin flip at 41%. Scores on Chatbot Arena can shift as more votes accumulate, and a model's score the day after debut may not yet be stable. No one outside Google knows exactly when the next Pro model arrives or how it will perform relative to current top-ranked models.

The odds right now

• 1480++7.4 pts (1w)87%
• 1490++2.1 pts (1w)65%
• 1495++3.5 pts (1w)38%
• 1500+-3.5 pts (1w)24%
• 1510+-8.5 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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