How many jobs added in July?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many new jobs the U.S. economy added in July 2026, and which range that number falls into. The U.S. government counts jobs every month by surveying employers across the country. A result in the 50k, 100k range would mean modest hiring, roughly half the pace many economists consider healthy. A result above 100k would signal stronger hiring, while a result below 50k would point to a very slow month for job growth. The market settles based on the official U.S. jobs report, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 7, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern time. Whichever bracket the reported number falls into wins. One thing to know: if a number lands exactly on a bracket boundary, the rules assign it to the higher bracket. If the report is delayed and not published before the following month's report is due, the market uses whatever the most recent available data shows instead. One relevant headline stands out: a report from August 3, 2026 says U.S. manufacturing activity grew faster in July, according to the ISM survey. Manufacturing expansion can contribute to job gains, so this is a mild signal worth noting. The other headlines in the news list are about unrelated topics and do not speak to U.S. employment. Beyond that one data point, there is no additional recent news here to draw on. Monthly job numbers are genuinely hard to forecast even for professional economists. The economy is enormous and many forces push in different directions at once: hiring in one sector can offset layoffs in another, seasonal patterns shift, and survey data is imperfect. The market currently spreads its weight fairly evenly across the three leading brackets, which reflects real disagreement. On top of that, the BLS sometimes revises its first estimate later, though this market resolves on the initial reported figure.

The odds right now

• 100k – 150k+18.4 pts (1w)32%
• 50k – 100k+3.0 pts (1w)31%
• 0 – 50k-11.0 pts (1w)14%
• 150k – 200k-7.0 pts (1w)12%
• <0-4.9 pts (1w)5%
• 200k+-3.1 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 7, 2026

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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