ISM Services PMI - July 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: when the U.S. services sector health report comes out for July 2026, which score range will it land in? The ISM Services PMI is a monthly number that summarizes how businesses in the service industry (think restaurants, banks, hospitals, retailers) felt about activity that month. A score above 50 means the sector is growing compared to the month before. A score below 50 means it is shrinking. The market is essentially voting on which narrow band the final number falls into, with 54.0 to 54.9 currently seen as the most likely range. The market settles to whichever score bracket matches the official July 2026 ISM Services PMI number, reported to one decimal place. The Institute for Supply Management publishes this number, and the release is scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM Eastern Time. One edge case worth knowing: if ISM delays or skips the release, the market stays open until the next scheduled report. If the data still never arrives, it resolves using the most recent available month's figure instead. None of the recent news provided is relevant to the ISM Services PMI for July 2026. The headlines cover a lawsuit, a job fair, AI commentary, and international news, none of which connect to this report. What would actually matter here is any news about U.S. service-sector activity in July, consumer spending trends, or early signals from business surveys covering that same month. This is genuinely hard to predict because the final number needs to land in a specific narrow band, not just above or below a single line. The 54.0 to 54.9 bracket leads at 28%, but that still means the market sees a 72% chance the number lands somewhere else entirely. Monthly PMI readings shift based on hiring sentiment, new orders, supplier conditions, and broader economic mood, all of which can surprise. No single piece of data reliably forecasts where exactly within the 50s the index will settle.

The odds right now

• 55.0–55.9+20.4 pts (1w)32%
• 53.0–53.9-13.5 pts (1w)24%
• 54.0–54.9-9.0 pts (1w)24%
• 58.0+-0.5 pts (1w)13%
• 52.0–52.9-6.9 pts (1w)10%
• 51.0–51.9-2.8 pts (1w)2%
• <50.0-1.0 pts (1w)1%
• 56.0–56.9-3.5 pts (1w)1%
• 50.0–50.9-4.2 pts (1w)1%
• 57.0–57.9-3.5 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 5, 2026

This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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