Core CPI YoY - July 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: how much have everyday prices risen over the past year by July 2026, when you leave out food and energy costs? That stripped-down measure is called core inflation, and it is the number economists watch most closely because food and energy prices jump around a lot. The market is essentially asking participants to guess whether that annual price increase lands at 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.6%, or some other value when the official report drops in August 2026. This market resolves to whichever percentage the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics officially publishes for 12-month core CPI in their August 12, 2026 report, released at 8:30 AM Eastern time. One important detail: the BLS rounds that number to one decimal place, so the result will be something like 2.4% or 2.5%, never 2.47%. The market settles on that exact rounded figure. If the BLS delays the release, the market stays open until the next scheduled report date. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching would be monthly CPI readings between now and July 2026, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, signs of wage growth or slowdown, and any major policy changes like tariffs that could push prices up or down across the economy. Over a year out, a lot can shift. Inflation responds to things that are genuinely hard to forecast: Federal Reserve rate decisions, the job market, global supply chains, oil prices, housing costs, and policy changes like tariffs. The market currently spreads its probability across three different outcomes clustered around 2.5%, which reflects real disagreement. Even professional economists with full-time research teams often miss these calls by a tenth or two, and a single unexpected shock in either direction can move the number meaningfully.

The odds right now

• 2.5%+14.0 pts (1w)42%
• 2.4%-18.0 pts (1w)27%
• 2.7%+8.0 pts (1w)9%
• 2.6%+0.1 pts (1w)6%
• ≤2.2%-1.1 pts (1w)6%
• 2.3%-0.4 pts (1w)4%
• ≥3.1%-0.4 pts (1w)3%
• 2.8%-7.6 pts (1w)1%
• 2.9%-3.6 pts (1w)1%
• 3.0%-3.8 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 12, 2026

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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