Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Howard Lutnick will lose his job as the US Secretary of Commerce before the end of 2026. A Yes means he leaves the role for any reason, whether he resigns, gets fired, or is pushed out. A No means he stays in the position all the way through December 31, 2026. It does not matter why he leaves, only whether he does. The market settles Yes the moment Lutnick stops being Secretary of Commerce, or the moment a resignation or removal is officially announced, even if the actual departure happens later. If he is still in the role on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, it settles No. The decision is based on official Trump administration statements or a clear consensus from credible news outlets. None of the provided recent headlines relate to Howard Lutnick or the US Department of Commerce. There is no relevant news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is any report of White House tension with Lutnick, a resignation announcement, or a major policy conflict that puts his position under pressure. The market prices this at roughly 38%, meaning it is not a long shot but still more likely No than Yes at this point. Cabinet departures are genuinely hard to forecast because they often depend on private relationships and internal White House dynamics that are invisible to the public. The deadline is the end of 2026, which leaves meaningful time for circumstances to shift. The biggest uncertainty is simply that personnel changes at this level are rarely telegraphed in advance.

The odds right now

• Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?-4.5 pts (1w)37%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.