ISM Manufacturing PMI - July 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking where a specific monthly health score for U.S. manufacturing will land in July 2026. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a number that summarizes whether factories across America are growing or shrinking: above 50 means the sector is expanding, below 50 means it is contracting. The market is not asking yes or no, but which range the number falls into, with the top two bets sitting between 53 and 55, well into expansion territory. It settles on whichever numbered bracket contains the official PMI reading released by the Institute for Supply Management on August 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. The number is reported to one decimal place, so a reading of 53.4 would land in the 53.0 to 53.9 bracket, for example. If ISM delays the release, the market stays open until the next scheduled report. If data never arrives, it resolves using the most recent available monthly figure instead. None of the provided news headlines relate to the ISM Manufacturing PMI or U.S. manufacturing conditions. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be reports about U.S. factory orders, trade policy changes affecting manufacturers, or earlier PMI surveys from other sources that sometimes preview the ISM figure. Economic indicators like this are genuinely hard to pin down in advance, even for professional forecasters. Manufacturing activity can shift quickly based on trade policy, supply chain disruptions, consumer demand, or global events, any of which could move the number by a point or two. The market spreads probability across several brackets rather than one, which reflects real disagreement. A one-point swing in the final reading could be the difference between two adjacent brackets, making precision difficult even when the general direction seems clear.

The odds right now

• 53.0–53.9+28.0 pts (1w)35%
• 54.0–54.9+11.5 pts (1w)28%
• 52.0–52.9-23.5 pts (1w)14%
• 51.0–51.9-14.5 pts (1w)13%
• 55.0–55.9-8.0 pts (1w)7%
• 56.0–56.9-3.0 pts (1w)7%
• 49.0–49.9-5.3 pts (1w)5%
• 50.0–50.9-6.0 pts (1w)4%
• 57.0+-19.3 pts (1w)3%
• <49.0-0.1 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 3, 2026

This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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