JOLTS Job Openings — June 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how many job openings will exist across the United States in June 2026, as measured by a specific government survey. Think of it as a snapshot: on any given day in June 2026, how many positions were employers actively trying to fill? The market is divided into ranges, and you are picking which range the final number falls into. The leading range right now is 7.4 to 7.5 million open jobs, which the market currently prices at about 32%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, a U.S. government agency, runs a monthly survey called JOLTS that counts unfilled job openings across nearly all industries. The BLS will publish the June 2026 data on August 4, 2026, at 10 AM Eastern time, and whichever number range contains that official figure wins. One edge case worth knowing: the BLS reports a precise number in thousands, not a rounded headline, so the exact unrounded figure is what determines the bracket. If the release is delayed, the market stays open until the next scheduled report. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching would be monthly jobs reports, Federal Reserve statements about the labor market, or any major economic shifts that could affect how many positions employers are trying to fill in the months leading up to June 2026. Job openings data is genuinely hard to forecast several months out. The U.S. labor market can shift meaningfully in response to interest rate decisions, economic slowdowns, hiring freezes, or sudden expansions in a sector. The market spreads probability across several brackets rather than concentrating it heavily in one, which reflects real disagreement. The top bracket holds only 32%, meaning the other 68% is spread across other outcomes. That spread is the honest signal: no one knows with confidence which range will capture the final number.

The odds right now

• 7.4M-7.5M+8.5 pts (1w)32%
• 7.3M-7.4M+0.7 pts (1w)18%
• 7.5M-7.6M-4.0 pts (1w)17%
• 7.2M-7.3M+0.9 pts (1w)16%
• 7.6M-7.7M-11.0 pts (1w)8%
• 7.7M-7.8M+0.1 pts (1w)5%
• 7.8M+-0.1 pts (1w)3%
• <7.2M+0.4 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This is a market about the seasonally adjusted total number of job openings in the United States in June 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This market will resolve to the bracket containing the seasonally adjusted total number of job openings for the total nonfarm sector in June 2026, as reported in the monthly JOLTS report published by the BLS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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