Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Israel and Hamas will sign a formal second-stage peace agreement before the end of 2026. Phase 1 was a temporary, partial deal: fighting paused, some hostages were released, and Israel pulled back to a limited boundary. Phase 2 would be a bigger, more permanent agreement covering things like a full Israeli withdrawal, what happens to Hamas's weapons, and who runs Gaza going forward. Yes means that deal gets signed. No means talks stall or collapse and no such agreement is announced. The market settles as Yes if, by December 31, 2026, both Israel and Hamas publicly acknowledge a Phase 2 agreement, either directly or through mediators like the US, Egypt, or Qatar. The deal does not need to be fully implemented, just officially announced. One important edge case: if the two sides simply extend or roll over the existing Phase 1 arrangement, that does NOT count. The agreement has to be explicitly described as Phase 2, or as a comprehensive or full ceasefire that goes beyond the original truce. The most recent news points to rising tensions in the broader region, with the US warning its citizens to consider leaving the Middle East and President Trump threatening further strikes on Iran. This matters because wider regional conflict involving Iran tends to complicate Gaza negotiations, as the parties, mediators, and political pressures all shift when a larger confrontation looms. There is no specific news provided about the Phase 2 talks themselves progressing or breaking down. This is a genuinely close call, with the market sitting almost exactly at 50/50. The core difficulty is that Phase 2 covers the hardest issues: Hamas disarmament and the future governance of Gaza, which are deep disagreements with no obvious middle ground. On top of that, the fresh regional tension with Iran adds unpredictability. Diplomacy can accelerate under pressure or collapse entirely. The December 2026 deadline gives over a year for talks, which is meaningful time, but Middle East negotiations have repeatedly stalled at precisely these kinds of structural disagreements.

The odds right now

• December 31+50.0 pts (1w)62%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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