PPI YoY - July 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how much prices charged by producers, meaning factories, farms, and wholesalers, will have risen over the 12 months ending in July 2026. Think of it as a measure of inflation at the business level, before those price changes reach consumers. A 'Yes' for the lowest bracket means producer prices rose 5.1% or less over that year. Higher brackets mean faster price growth. The number that settles this comes from one official U.S. government report. The market resolves, meaning it gets its final answer, the moment the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its official PPI report on August 13, 2026, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Whatever year-over-year percentage the BLS prints for total final demand PPI, rounded to one decimal place, is the answer. One key detail: this uses the total PPI number, which includes food and energy prices, not the 'core' version that strips those out. A delayed release shifts the deadline to the next scheduled report. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be monthly PPI readings in the months leading up to July 2026, any big shifts in energy or commodity prices, changes in U.S. trade tariffs that affect input costs for businesses, and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions that influence inflation trends broadly. Producer price inflation is genuinely hard to forecast more than a year out. Energy prices can swing sharply and unexpectedly. Trade policy, including tariffs, can change the cost of imported goods for businesses almost overnight. Federal Reserve decisions affect how much cooling pressure exists on prices overall. The market currently leans toward the lowest bracket, with about 56% odds, suggesting participants expect relatively contained producer inflation, but a lot can shift between now and July 2026.

The odds right now

• ≤5.1%-0.5 pts (1w)56%
• 5.2%-21.5 pts (1w)11%
• 5.4%+2.1 pts (1w)10%
• 5.3%+2.9 pts (1w)9%
• 5.5%+4.8 pts (1w)9%
• 6.0%+-30.0 pts (1w)7%
• 5.7%-0.5 pts (1w)3%
• 5.9%+0.8 pts (1w)2%
• 5.6%-1.3 pts (1w)1%
• 5.8%-1.4 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 13, 2026

This is a market about the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending in July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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