July Unemployment Rate: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the official U.S. unemployment rate be for July 2026? The unemployment rate, in this context, measures the share of Americans who are actively looking for work but do not have a job. The market offers several possible answers, with 4.3%, 4.2%, and 4.1% as the main options. A higher number means more people are out of work; a lower number means the job market is tighter. You are essentially guessing which single number the government will report. This market settles the moment the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its July 2026 Employment Situation Report, scheduled for August 7, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern time. The specific number used is the U-3 rate, which is the headline unemployment figure reported to one decimal place. Whichever option matches that printed number wins. One important edge case: if the BLS later revises the number, those revisions do not count. Only the very first published figure matters, even if it gets corrected afterward. None of the provided news headlines relate to the U.S. job market or unemployment. They cover Malaysian currency, Australian housing, and other unrelated topics. There is no relevant recent news to draw from here. For this market, the key things to watch for would be U.S. jobs data releases in the months leading up to July 2026, Federal Reserve policy signals, and any major shifts in U.S. economic conditions that could push hiring up or down. Even professional economists regularly miss unemployment forecasts, because the number depends on millions of individual hiring and firing decisions across the whole country. Small shifts in economic conditions, trade policy, or consumer confidence can nudge the rate in either direction. The market currently spreads its probability across 4.1%, 4.2%, and 4.3%, with no single option above 31%, which tells you the crowd sees this as genuinely open. The one-decimal precision also matters: the difference between 4.15% and 4.25% in the raw data determines which answer wins.

The odds right now

• 4.3%-6.5 pts (1w)33%
• 4.2%-6.0 pts (1w)25%
• 4.1%+11.0 pts (1w)24%
• 4.0%+4.3 pts (1w)7%
• 4.4%-8.5 pts (1w)4%
• ≤3.9%+0.8 pts (1w)4%
• 4.6%-0.7 pts (1w)3%
• 4.5%+0.5 pts (1w)3%
• ≥4.7%-0.2 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 7, 2026

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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