Khamenei # posts July 24 - July 31, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei post on his X account (@khamenei_ir) during one specific week in late July 2026? A result of fewer than 5 posts means he was mostly silent that week. A result of 5 to 9 means moderate activity. A result of 30 to 34 would mean he was posting very heavily, almost multiple times per day. The market settles based on a post-counting tool at xtracker.polymarket.com, which tracks his X account from July 24 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time through July 31 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time. Only original posts, reposts, and quote posts count. Replies do not count, unless they appear on his main feed. One important detail: even deleted posts count, as long as the tracker captured them within about five minutes of posting. The provided headlines point to rising tension between the US and Iran, including strategic pressure around the Hormuz strait and Yemen-related conflict. These are relevant because geopolitical crises often push political leaders to communicate more publicly. If tensions escalate sharply during that week, Khamenei may post more. If things are quiet or sensitive, he may post less. No direct news about his X posting behavior was provided. Khamenei's posting habits can shift quickly based on regional events, and that is genuinely hard to anticipate a week in advance. The market currently prices a low post count as the most likely outcome at 65%, suggesting his account has historically been quiet. But active geopolitical moments can change that. There is also some technical uncertainty: the tracker tool defines what counts, and edge cases like feed-appearing replies or quickly deleted posts could affect the final number in close scenarios.

The odds right now

• <562%
• 5-918%
• 30-3413%
• 25-2911%
• 35-3911%
• 20-2410%
• 10-146%
• 15-193%
• 45-491%
• 50-541%
• 55-591%
• 40-440%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 24, 12:00 PM ET and July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.