Khamenei # posts July 31 - August 7, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many times Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei posts on X (formerly Twitter) during one specific week: July 31 to August 7, 2026. A 'Yes' on any bracket means his post count lands in that range. The three options are: fewer than 5 posts, between 5 and 9 posts, or between 10 and 14 posts. It is essentially a question about how active his official account is during that particular week. The market settles based on a post-counting tool at xtracker.polymarket.com, which tracks his account (@khamenei_ir) from July 31 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time through August 7 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time. Only original posts, reposts, and quote posts count. Replies do not count, with one exception: if a reply appears on his main feed rather than in a thread, it still counts. Deleted posts also count, as long as the tracker captured them within about five minutes of posting. One piece of recent news is relevant: Iran's Foreign Minister issued a warning to Britain against cooperating with U.S. strikes on Iran, dated August 2, 2026. This suggests the broader political situation around Iran is tense during this exact window. Periods of geopolitical tension or major news events sometimes lead Khamenei's account to post more frequently, though that connection is not guaranteed. Posting volume for a political leader's account can shift a lot depending on what is happening in the news that week. The reported tension between Iran and Western countries could push activity higher, or communications could go quiet for strategic reasons. There is also no fixed posting schedule to rely on. The market currently splits odds across all three brackets, with no option above 53%, which reflects genuine uncertainty. Past weekly patterns would be the most useful guide, but those are not provided here.

The odds right now

• 5-940%
• 10-1438%
• 15-1916%
• 20-244%
• 40-441%
• 50-541%
• 55-591%
• 60+1%
• 25-290%
• 45-490%
• 30-340%
• 35-390%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 7, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 31, 12:00 PM ET and August 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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