Krasnoyarsk Krai Parliament Election: Party Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which political party will win the most seats in the regional parliament of Krasnoyarsk Krai, a large Russian region in Siberia, after its September 2026 election. A win for United Russia means the Kremlin-aligned ruling party takes the most seats, as it does in nearly every Russian regional election. A win for any other party, like the Party of Pensioners or CPRF (the Communist Party), would mean United Russia was beaten, which would be a highly unusual result in modern Russian politics. The market settles to whichever party holds the most seats in the Krasnoyarsk Legislative Assembly after the September 20, 2026 vote. The count includes seats won both in individual districts and through the party-list proportional system. If official results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, it resolves as 'Other.' In a tie on seats, the party with more proportional-list votes wins. Independents count for no party. The final call relies on credible reporting, or official Russian election authorities if there is any dispute. None of the provided news headlines relate to this election. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development worth watching would be any Russian government announcement about changes to electoral rules, candidate registration decisions, or local political news from Krasnoyarsk Krai as the election approaches in 2026. The market is priced at 96% for United Russia, which reflects a very strong historical pattern: United Russia dominates Russian regional elections consistently, benefiting from state resources, media access, and limited space for opposition. The real uncertainty is not between two competitive sides. It is simply whether something completely unexpected disrupts that pattern, which past results suggest is rare. The election is still over a year away, so time itself adds a small layer of the unknown, but the market clearly treats this as a near-certain outcome.

The odds right now

• United Russia97%
• The Greens1%
• LDPR1%
• A Just Russia1%
• CPRF1%
• Party of Pensioners1%
• New People0%
• Rodina0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 20, 2026

Parliamentary elections to elect the Legislative Assembly of Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Krasnoyarsk Krai as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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