Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Lee Jae-myung will stop being South Korea's president at any point before the end of 2026. A Yes means he leaves the presidency for any reason: resignation, removal, impeachment, detention, or anything else that ends his time in office. A No means he stays in power through December 31, 2026. South Korea has a single-term presidency, so this is purely about whether something cuts his current term short. The market settles Yes the moment Lee Jae-myung leaves the presidency for any reason before December 31, 2026. That includes resignation, impeachment, a court removal, or being detained in a way that prevents him from doing his job. Importantly, just announcing a future departure is enough to trigger a Yes immediately, even if he hasn't actually left yet. If none of that happens, it resolves No at the end of 2026. Official government sources or a clear consensus of credible news reporting will be used to decide. The most relevant headline is from July 25, 2026: Lee Jae-myung hosted a US tech summit and was announcing major AI and business partnerships, including a reported 500 billion dollar deal involving Nvidia and SK Group. This suggests he is actively functioning as president, engaging with foreign leaders and driving major policy initiatives. The other headlines in the news feed are unrelated to this market. The market prices a Yes at only about 10%, meaning it considers his removal quite unlikely but not impossible. South Korea does have recent history with presidential removal, so the possibility is real. The main uncertainty is whether any of his ongoing legal challenges, political opposition, or unforeseen events could force him out before year end. That said, given that he appears to be governing actively and the market is priced heavily toward No, the honest framing is that the main risk is simply whether something unexpected happens.

The odds right now

• Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?+0.1 pts (1w)10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be the President of South Korea for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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