Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be the President of South Korea for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lee Jae-myung's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lee Jae-myung and the government of South Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Prediction markets show the heaviest volume concentrated on Lee Jae-myung remaining as President of South Korea through the end of 2026, with removal or resignation treated as a minority outcome. The market resolves 'Yes' if Lee ceases to hold the presidency for any period before 31 December 2026, through resignation, removal, detention, or any other mechanism that prevents him fulfilling presidential duties. Resolution is based on official South Korean government sources or a consensus of credible reporting.

Market structure

This is a binary market — 'Yes' if Lee Jae-myung leaves the presidency before 31 December 2026, 'No' if he remains throughout. Volume is heavily concentrated on the 'No' outcome. Resolution triggers include resignation, impeachment, removal by constitutional process, detention, or any event permanently preventing the fulfilment of presidential duties. An announcement of departure resolves the market immediately, regardless of when the departure formally takes effect. The resolution source is official South Korean government information, supplemented by credible press consensus.

Background

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, became a central figure in South Korean politics following the political crisis that led to the impeachment and removal of President Yoon Suk-yeol in late 2024 and early 2025, after Yoon's short-lived declaration of martial law. Lee subsequently won the presidential election held in June 2025, taking office amid a deeply polarised political landscape. South Korea's recent constitutional history — including the impeachment of two presidents within a decade — has made political stability a persistent concern, and that backdrop shapes the framing of this market.

Key factors

South Korea's constitutional framework allows the National Assembly to initiate impeachment proceedings with a two-thirds majority, a mechanism used against both Park Geun-hye and Yoon Suk-yeol in recent years. The Democratic Party holds a strong parliamentary position following the 2024 legislative elections, which structurally reduces the likelihood of a hostile impeachment majority forming against Lee. However, Lee himself carries unresolved legal exposure: he faced multiple criminal trials on charges including bribery and election law violations before taking office, and his presidential immunity does not necessarily extinguish all proceedings. A court ruling, a new indictment, or a significant political rupture within the governing coalition could each create pressure for resignation or trigger constitutional review. External shocks — geopolitical events, economic crisis, or a major domestic scandal — represent additional variables. The Constitutional Court's interpretation of presidential immunity and the pace of ongoing legal proceedings are therefore key decision points for this market.

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