Lowest temperature in NYC on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how warm will it stay overnight in New York City on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the coldest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport that day, which in July typically happens in the early morning hours before sunrise. A result of 72-73°F means a relatively mild night, while 76-77°F means the city barely cools down at all, which is common during summer heat waves. Think of it as a question about how hot the overnight low is. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading recorded at LaGuardia Airport (station KLGA) on July 22, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. Whatever whole-number Fahrenheit reading is the lowest for that day determines which range wins. The data is locked in once the first reading from July 23 appears, so late corrections before that cutoff count, but any changes after do not. There are no other edge cases mentioned. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The one headline available is unrelated to New York City weather. The kind of news that would matter here includes forecasts for late July heat waves or unusually cool summer patterns in the northeastern United States, particularly as the date gets closer. July in NYC is reliably warm, which is why all the leading odds cluster between 72 and 77°F rather than spreading widely. The real uncertainty is that overnight lows depend on subtle factors: cloud cover, humidity, wind, and whether a front passes through. A slightly cooler night shifts the result down two degrees; a muggy, stagnant night pushes it up. With over a year until the date, there is essentially no useful forecast yet, so current odds reflect historical patterns more than any specific prediction.

The odds right now

• 72-73°F33%
• 70-71°F25%
• 74-75°F23%
• 76-77°F11%
• 68-69°F6%
• 66-67°F1%
• 78-79°F1%
• 65°F or below0%
• 82-83°F0%
• 80-81°F0%
• 84°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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