Highest temperature in NYC on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: how hot will New York City get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it is asking which 2-degree temperature band will contain the day's peak heat. A result of 84-85°F means a warm but comfortable summer day. A result of 86-87°F means noticeably hot. A result of 88-89°F means a genuinely sweltering day. The measurement comes from one specific location: the official weather station at LaGuardia Airport. After July 22, 2026 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground record for the LaGuardia Airport station (KLGA) and finds the single highest temperature reading of the day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Fahrenheit. Whichever 2-degree band contains that number wins. The market waits until the first data point from July 23 appears before settling, to allow for any last-minute corrections to the July 22 data. After that cutoff, no further revisions count. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. They are all about unrelated topics from other countries. There is no recent weather forecast or climate data in what was shared. What would actually matter here is a National Weather Service forecast for New York City around July 22, 2026, or any news about an approaching heat wave or cooling pattern affecting the Northeast. July weather in New York is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, let alone a year in advance. Late July in NYC can swing widely, from mild breezy days in the low 80s to brutal heat waves pushing past 90°F. The market currently splits almost evenly between 84-85°F and 86-87°F, each at 39%, which honestly reflects that uncertainty. A single weather system, a sea breeze, or an unexpected heat dome could shift the result into a different band entirely. No model predicts specific daily highs a year ahead.

The odds right now

• 86-87°F37%
• 84-85°F35%
• 88-89°F15%
• 82-83°F11%
• 80-81°F2%
• 90-91°F2%
• 92-93°F1%
• 78-79°F1%
• 76-77°F0%
• 94°F or higher0%
• 75°F or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.